Research by the think tank More in Common put the Tories on 22% of the vote with Reform UK in the lead on 30%.

It means that the “combined right” vote amounts to 52%, which is a record level according to More in Common’s UK director Luke Tryl.

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Farage is the least unpopular party leader with a rating of minus four, while LibDem Ed Davey comes in at minus eight.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch posted a rating of minus 22 and Keir Starmer finished dead last on minus 39 points.

This week’s voting intention shows an 8-point lead for Reform while the Tories bump up after their low last week to tie with Labour

➡️ REF UK 30% (-1)
🌳 CON 22% (+4)
🌹 LAB 22% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 13% (-1)
🌍 GREEN 6% (-1)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1)

N = 2,015 | Dates: 8 – 11/8 | Change w 3/8 pic.twitter.com/59rq6wW9rm

— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) August 13, 2025

Speculation is rife that the Tories may end up in a coalition with Reform if Farage’s party does not win outright at the next Westminster election, though both parties have both ruled this out.

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However, some within the Conservative Party believe it is inevitable. Tory mayor of the Tees Valley, Lord Houchen, told the BBC in April that if the number of Tory and Reform MPs “create a significant majority” then “obviously there’s going to be a conversation to form a coalition or some sort of pact”.