Most people in the UK have little idea that the food in their fridge is closely connected to extreme weather now sweeping Brazil.
The UK imports more food from Brazil than from any other non-European country.
These weather conditions — from droughts, floods, and heatwaves — are increasingly shaping the landscape of food production in the UK, and, ultimately, what makes it to supermarket shelves.
A recent report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) found that the UK imports almost two-fifths of its food. Meanwhile, towns in southern Brazil are submerged under water, and wiping out crops and livestock.
Brazil has been, and remains to be a major supplier of soybeans, beef, chicken, coffee, sugar, and fruit for UK supermarkets. Yet fewer people recognise that Brazil is experiencing the fastest climate shifts worldwide.
The hand that feeds us
Over the past two years, the Amazon has faced its worst drought in seven decades. The south has endured deadly floods exacerbated by global warming, and extreme heat which has also caused school closures. These climatic changes are crippling the farms which supply our food.
Gareth Redmond-King, ECIU international programme lead, said:
British families are already paying the price at the tills for climate extremes hitting both here and abroad. This year saw the UK’s second worst harvest on record.
Extreme weather conditions are now commonplace. Drier seasons are longer, rainfall is unpredictable, and forests are losing their ability to recycle moisture.
The impact is not limited to Brazil as the dominoes of these changes can be felt in the UK, impacting supply chains and, inevitably, consumer choices.
Research by Global Witness shows that UK shoppers are still buying products linked to deforestation, with little regard for the country from which their food originates.
Redmond-King paints the bigger picture.
We depend on Brazil for coffee, sugar, oranges and tropical fruits – as well as a lot of soy to feed livestock grown in the UK […] Vast swathes of rainforest and other biomes have been cleared to grow some of these foods; this deforestation is itself a key driver of the climate change affecting the ability to produce these foods.
The organisation found that imports of beef, soy and palm oil contribute to forest loss equivalent in size to the cities of Newcastle, Liverpool or Cardiff.
Supposed protections, namely the UK Environment Act (2021) hasn’t been enacted due to repeated delays. Their half-baked approach leaves forests vulnerable to deforestation and shrugs in the face of human rights abuses.
Climate ripples hit the UK
In 2024, soy imports from Brazil were valued at £243m. The strain on Brazilian soy production is greater than ever due to extreme heat. Scientists say that every 10C of global warming is estimated to cut soy production by around 6%.
This increase would strike at the heart of soy production in Brazil, and threaten the UK’s poultry market. Beef and chicken are also directly sourced from the very forests under threat. The UK imports 500,000 tonnes of Brazilian chicken yearly, and the chickens require soy feed.
There are also hidden social and environmental costs for Brazil’s soy industry. As Unearthed reports, the use of herbicide-resistant seeds has transformed Brazil’s soy industry.
Roughly 98% of today’s crop is said to be genetically modified. This is pushing soy farming into unchartered areas, decimating forests in areas like the Amazon and the Cerrado.
Brazil also supplies up to 35 percent of the UK’s green coffee beans. Coffee farming is highly sensitive to drought and heat.
The 2023-24 drought in Brazil caused global prices to spike, and by the time the shockwaves reached the UK, supermarket coffee prices had risen by 13%.
Mangoes, melons, limes, papayas, and sugar, sourced from Brazil, are also at risk due to water shortages and hotter temperatures.
In the centre-south, dry conditions have eroded sugar cane production, and northeastern fruit farmers are forced to use far more water for crops to survive.
The orange juice industry, which supplies more than 70 percent of global exports, is also under strain. Heat and disease have hit citrus trees across the country.
As a result, UK fruit juice prices are 30% higher than in 2022, and orange juice prices have more than doubled since 2020.
A shared responsibility
Climate shocks in Brazil are already reflected in UK supermarkets. Food becomes more expensive when crops fail, supply chains become less reliable, and families on tight budgets are hit hardest.
Global supply chains also face more risks from plant diseases and poor harvests linked to hot weather. The UK’s dependence on food from places deeply affected by climate change makes the country more vulnerable than most people realise.
Climate change is not a distant worry. It determines the food on our plates and supermarket shelves. Recognising these truths must inspire action and alleviate the pressure felt by vulnerable environments which feed us. Brazil is the breadbasket that feeds the UK. The impact felt in southern Brazil and the Amazon will also hurt the UK, and what our supermarkets can stock, and most importantly, what UK families can afford.
Featured image via Unsplash/Ramses Cervantes
